Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.4 | 3.7% | 49 | 0.43% | 68 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 24 | 20.0 | 15.3% | 202 | 1.48% | 261 | 1.92% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 29.3 | 22.9% | 302 | 1.44% | 405 | 1.94% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 17.6 | 15.9% | 210 | 1.54% | 296 | 2.18% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 14.3 | 12.9% | 170 | 1.62% | 223 | 2.13% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 12.6 | 12.1% | 160 | 1.27% | 228 | 1.82% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 9.9 | 8.2% | 108 | 0.94% | 148 | 1.29% |
| 70+ | 10 | 10.0 | 8.8% | 116 | 1.11% | 175 | 1.67% |
| All ages | 67 | 118.0 | 100% | 1317 | 1.26% | 1804 | 1.72% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.4 | 3.1% | 38 | 0.49% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 8.3 | 6.9% | 85 | 1.01% | 108 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 24 | 16.7 | 15.1% | 186 | 2.62% | 220 | 3.09% |
| 30-39 | 30 | 21.3 | 19.9% | 245 | 2.91% | 296 | 3.52% |
| 40-49 | 27 | 19.9 | 19% | 234 | 3.02% | 285 | 3.67% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 16.9 | 16.3% | 200 | 2.06% | 240 | 2.47% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 14.0 | 13% | 160 | 1.9% | 192 | 2.28% |
| 70+ | 10 | 7.3 | 6.7% | 82 | 1.15% | 110 | 1.55% |
| All ages | 135 | 107.7 | 100% | 1230 | 1.9% | 1493 | 2.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.9 | 4.6% | 35 | 0.64% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 8.3 | 11.1% | 84 | 1.55% | 106 | 1.95% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 10.0 | 14.5% | 110 | 2.43% | 130 | 2.87% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 8.1 | 13.7% | 104 | 1.92% | 129 | 2.38% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 9.3 | 13.9% | 106 | 2.13% | 138 | 2.77% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 10.4 | 15.4% | 117 | 1.72% | 146 | 2.15% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 10.7 | 14.3% | 109 | 1.72% | 136 | 2.15% |
| 70+ | 14 | 11.6 | 12.5% | 95 | 1.5% | 136 | 2.15% |
| All ages | 56 | 71.3 | 100% | 760 | 1.68% | 961 | 2.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.1 | 2.6% | 38 | 0.32% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 17.0 | 11.5% | 166 | 1% | 197 | 1.19% |
| 20-29 | 41 | 30.0 | 20.8% | 301 | 1.41% | 356 | 1.67% |
| 30-39 | 21 | 21.3 | 14.2% | 205 | 1.51% | 244 | 1.79% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 19.0 | 13.3% | 192 | 1.41% | 237 | 1.74% |
| 50-59 | 41 | 23.6 | 16.6% | 239 | 1.68% | 289 | 2.04% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 17.4 | 11.9% | 172 | 1.21% | 198 | 1.4% |
| 70+ | 13 | 11.9 | 9.1% | 131 | 1.01% | 147 | 1.13% |
| All ages | 166 | 144.3 | 100% | 1444 | 1.22% | 1711 | 1.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 20 | 23.6 | 5.4% | 232 | 0.39% | 303 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 62 | 73.6 | 15.7% | 675 | 0.95% | 833 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 119 | 115.6 | 24.3% | 1043 | 1% | 1350 | 1.3% |
| 30-39 | 71 | 72.7 | 15.9% | 681 | 0.89% | 868 | 1.13% |
| 40-49 | 55 | 62.1 | 13.7% | 586 | 0.89% | 752 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 59 | 51.4 | 11% | 470 | 0.72% | 615 | 0.94% |
| 60-69 | 41 | 30.1 | 6.6% | 284 | 0.52% | 396 | 0.72% |
| 70+ | 38 | 34.9 | 7.4% | 316 | 0.64% | 417 | 0.85% |
| All ages | 465 | 464.0 | 100% | 4287 | 0.78% | 5534 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 284 | 254.1 | 3.9% | 2465 | 0.38% | 3144 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 866 | 751.0 | 11.2% | 7086 | 0.94% | 9062 | 1.2% |
| 20-29 | 1376 | 1163.9 | 17.9% | 11267 | 1.49% | 14453 | 1.91% |
| 30-39 | 1192 | 988.1 | 15.5% | 9791 | 1.29% | 12653 | 1.67% |
| 40-49 | 1125 | 915.6 | 14.7% | 9254 | 1.32% | 11872 | 1.7% |
| 50-59 | 1225 | 980.4 | 15.5% | 9804 | 1.2% | 12588 | 1.54% |
| 60-69 | 943 | 741.1 | 11.4% | 7175 | 0.95% | 9178 | 1.21% |
| 70+ | 766 | 648.6 | 9.9% | 6256 | 0.98% | 8123 | 1.27% |
| All ages | 7777 | 6442.9 | 100% | 63098 | 1.08% | 81073 | 1.39% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172.4 | 191.9 | 193.5 | 118 | 110.7 | 34.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 230.9 | 107.7 | 71.4 | 46.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 212.4 | 71.3 | 46.6 | 46.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144.7 | 119 | 167.3 | 144.3 | 76 | 34.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101.2 | 117.2 | 130 | 464 | 271.7 | 30% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139.2 | 119.7 | 190.9 | 6442.9 | 4463.9 | 36.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 8.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2498"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges